What does Chelsea need to challenge for the Premier League title?

Chance conversion and big chance conversion (~14% shot conversion in a season)

This point is more important in a title run, but the previous point is important in that it gives you more chances to score. The more good chances you create, the lower the proportion you need to convert to score lots of goals. Some teams have challenged for league titles by converting a small percentage of a high volume of chances. Some others have challenged by converting a higher proportion of a not-as-high volume.

Big chances are your best chances to score, so converting them is very important. Chelsea has missed, on average, 66% of the big chances they’ve gotten in the last five seasons. In the same period, Liverpool missed 58% of their big chances on average, with their most wasteful season being the 2017-18 season where they missed 73% of their big chances.

In terms of general shot conversion, Chelsea converted 10.8% of their shots on average, Liverpool averaged 13.2%, and Manchester City averaged 14.6%. It wouldn’t then surprise you to know that of those three, City has scored the most goals in that period, followed by Liverpool, and then Chelsea. Chelsea would need to get to a 14 or 15% shot conversion, which then means that they would need to increase the quality of shots they create on average, but would also need to be better at shooting.