What does Chelsea need to challenge for the Premier League title?

Shot allowance and defending (<3 shots on targets allowed per game)

Chelsea would need to limit the number of shots and shots on target they allow per game. In the time under scrutiny, Liverpool has allowed 8.2 shots per game on average, 2.9 of those being shots on target. In the same period, Manchester City has allowed 6.7 shots, with 2.3 of them being on target per game.

CFC has allowed 9.1 shots with three of them being on target per game. Furthermore, Liverpool’s highest number of shots on target allowed coincided with the one season they did not challenge for the title since they started challenging: the 2020/21 season where they came third. Manchester City’s highest number of shots on target allowed (2.8) also coincided with the one season they did not win the league title in the last five completed seasons: 2019/20.

Reducing the volume and quality of shots allowed is as important for a title challenger as creating a high volume of good goal-scoring chances. Man City allowed 2.2, 2.0, 2.8, 2.2, and 2.4 shots on target per game in the last five seasons, you can guess the season they didn’t win the league.

Interestingly, Chelsea boasts the lowest proportion of shots on target to shots, with 33% of the shots they’ve allowed in the time under scrutiny being shots on target, compared to 34% for Man City and 35% for Liverpool.