What does Chelsea need to challenge for the Premier League title?

Shot-stopping (~71% save rate)

The previous section is heavily linked with this one. Manchester City has been able to consistently keep excellent defensive records not because they have an excellent keeper, but because they’re excellent defensively. They allow very few shots per game (6.7), and a very low number of shots on target per game (2.3), this means that the goalkeeper only needs to be competent, without being outstanding, and they’d have a good chance of winning the league. When you do it as well as City has, your goalkeeper can even afford to be poor, and you’d still have a chance of winning it.

The save percentages of the goalkeepers of the last five league-winning campaigns are 69% (Ederson, Man City), 72% (Ederson, Man City), 72% (Alisson, Liverpool), 70% (Ederson, Man City), 70% (Ederson, Man City), according to SofaScore.

That’s an average of 71% save rate. This means that any goalkeeper that can manage a 71% save rate will do just fine for a title-challenging side. Arsenal is currently eight points clear at the top of the table (with a game ahead) with Aaron Ramsdale in goal. Ramsdale has averaged a 72% save rate this season.

The most important factor for a title-challenging side in terms of shot-stopping is keeping the number of shots on target per game very low, preferably below 2.9 shots on target per game, then as long as the keeper is competent and can save up to 70% of that, everything will be fine.

Different title-challenging goalkeepers record varying save rates, but the general constant is the number of shots they face per game*.

A title-challenging side does not need to tick just one of these boxes, it needs to tick all four in most cases. It needs to create a high volume of high-quality goal-scoring chances, finish those chances at a good and sustainable rate to score many goals, and also reduce the number and quality of shots your goalkeeper faces.

Chelsea has only been able to do one of these consistently, in each of the past five seasons, and that’s why they have not been title challengers. In the 2019/20 season the Blues created an impressive 2.8 big chances per game, but only converted 10% of their shots, and their goalkeeper at the time, Kepa Arrizabalaga, faced 3.2 shots on target per game.

In the 2020/21 season, Chelsea limited their opponents to just 2.7 shots on target per game, with Mendy saving 70% of those, but they created just 2.4 big chances per game, converted about 10% of their shots again, and in fact only scored 58 goals in 38 league games.

The 2021/22 season also saw the Blues pass in the shot allowance and defending aspect, but fail in chance creation and goal-scoring. This season, Arsenal is passing in 3/4 of these, creating a lot, scoring a lot, and saving a good percentage of shots faced, but are allowing 3.3 shots on target per game, which they need to reduce.

This checklist will definitely not ALWAYS be true, but most of the time, it would be accurate. This season, Chelsea is not creating that much (1.9 big chances per game), is converting just 9% of their shots, and is allowing four shots on target per game, though the goalkeeper is saving 78% of the shots he’s facing.

*Shots faced by a goalkeeper would be the same as shots on target allowed by that goalkeeper’s team because the outcome is either a save, a goal, or in very rare cases, a goal line clearance.