Chelsea vs Newcastle: EPL betting guide and tips

I’m fairly certain both squads will mentally be on the beach by kickoff, so I’m not expecting any entertainment value whatsoever during the 90’ of game-time. I like a lot of the unders, which feels appropriate considering they were so profitable for us for a majority of the year.

One play I’ve had my eye on since the odds were first released is under 2.5 total goals at +124 odds. I really love the value on this bet. Newcastle is top five in the Premier League in scoring this season, averaging 1.8 goals per match, largely thanks to incredible individual performances from Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron, and Alexander Isak. All three finished the campaign with double-digit goal totals, including Wilson somehow scoring a very quiet 18.

Here’s the thing; it’s highly unlikely any of these guys will be playing on Sunday. Eddie Howe is an incredible man-manager, known for utilizing his entire squad throughout the year. I have a strong feeling he’ll deploy some of his younger guys, and potentially even some youth players, who aren’t nearly as ruthless at converting chances. They won’t score more than twice against the Blues’ back line, which has still conceded the seventh-fewest goals in the English top flight. I’m not even going to talk about Chelsea’s attack. It won’t be a factor in this contest. Trust me, just take the under.

In the same vein, I really like the home team to score under 1.5 goals at -164 odds. The home side have only found the back of the net multiple times in a game twice since the middle of March, against Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth, respectively. Both sides are bottom five in the EPL in scoring defense, so that really isn’t much to write home about.