Has Colwill been as good as advertised for Chelsea this season?

Chelsea’s Levi Colwill, a European Champion with the England U21s, has started every game in all competitions this season. He has primarily played as a left back in the league but as a centerback against AFC Wimbledon and Brighton & Hove Albion in the EFL Cup second and third rounds respectively. He has gotten rave reviews, and rightly so, and one of the things he has been praised for is his passing, but how good has his passing been?

First of all, who is a good passer? What is good passing? Is good passing an ability to make a difficult pass? Or the consistency with which you make relatively difficult passes? Should you be judged by your ability to pick out a 30-yard pass? Or the frequency with which you pick out 30-yard passes accurately?

The issue with the eye test, is that you’re likely to notice one event more than others. It takes a trained eye to spot frequency in inaccuracy. Often, Chelsea fans judge players based on “what comes off”, and while that has it’s merits, “what comes off” is often considerably disproportional to “what doesn’t come off”. Of course, player evaluations should also take into consideration the manager’s instructions, but even without knowing the manager’s instructions, it is still possible to give calculate guesses on what the manager has instructed players to do, based on the manager’s principles.

Colwill’s passing was very good last season. With 5.2 progressive passes per 90, he ranked in the 92nd percentile amongst centerbacks in the Premier League for progressive passes according to FBref. Amongst centerbacks, he ranked in the 99th percentile for expected threat from passes (xT Passes) and in the 67th percentile for expected assists from open play (xA OP) according to Xvalue.ai. This paints the picture of a centerback that was very good in possession, positively influencing his team’s play.

This season, Colwill has played at left back for Mauricio Pochettino’s Chels‘, and that has severely affected his passing. Had many fans acknowledged this, it would have been a more accurate evaluation of his passing season so far. Colwill’s passing has not been good this season. In the EFL Cup where he has played primarily as a centerback, he has averaged 90% passing accuracy, and 25% long ball accuracy, which is abysmal for a centerback.

The former Brighton defender attempted 12 long balls in two games and only completed three. This is not particularly surprising either, as the youngster obviously keeps attempting the same type of pass: low, hard, driven between the lines into the center of the pitch, or down the left flank. The issue with this is that the center of the pitch is the most congested, so opponents are best placed to intercept passes like that, which they do – often.

In the league, Colwill’s progressive passing numbers have dropped – in volume and in proportion. Last season his progressive passes accounted for 6.8% of all his completed passes. This season it has dropped to 4.6% according to Fbref. In fact, the player’s passing has been so bad that he ranks in the 32nd percentile for progressive passes amongst CBs in the EPL.

His xA OP has massively improved from last season, but that may be due to him playing as a fullback, as he ranks 86th percentile amongst Premier League centerhalves. This data is definitely not as accurate as it should be, because Colwill should be ranked amongst fullbacks, but Fbref still sees him as a centerback. He has averaged 36% long passing accuracy in the league, according to Sofascore, and completed only 40% of his passes longer than 30 yards, compared to 71% last season. It’s OK to regard the England defender as a good passer, but his passing has not been good this season, and it’s OK to acknowledge that too.