Big Chances, set pieces and why Chelsea still has much room for improvement
In fact, in the last five league games, Chelsea has allowed the following big chances:
- 4 vs. Nottingham Forest
- 3 vs. Liverpool
- 3 vs. Newcastle
- 4 vs. Manchester United
- 4 vs. Arsenal
This is concerning when you consider that Chelsea is ranked above every team on that list, excluding Liverpool.
Chelsea has lost just twice this season, but the underlying defensive numbers suggest that the low number of losses is not due to defensive prowess. This defensive weakness is also highlighted in Robert Sanchez’s stats. The big Spaniard is averaging an impressive 3.8 saves per game, with a 76% save rate, yet he has only prevented 0.83 goals overall. This suggests that if Sanchez stops being stellar between the sticks, the number of goals conceded will likely rise.
What’s worse? Sanchez cannot maintain this level of performance forever. His save volume will likely decrease, and his save rate may also drop. Over the course of a season, goalkeepers typically see a reduction in both save volume and rate from Game Week 11 onward.
If Chelsea doesn't start limiting the number of big chances it concedes, the Blues may find themselves slipping down the table rather quickly. The football schedule this season is demanding, and there’s no break until next year, when about 80% of the games will have been played.
Defensive set pieces
In addition to regularly conceding big chances, Chelsea is also extremely vulnerable at defending set pieces. And no, it’s not just a perception. Of all the teams in the top six, Chelsea ranks fifth for the quality of chances allowed per indirect free kick.
Chelsea has conceded the second most shots from indirect free kicks of any team in the top six (9), combining for 1.32 xG. This averages out to 0.15 xG per shot. Only Liverpool has a worse number in this metric (0.23). The key difference between Liverpool and the Blues is that the Reds doesn’t have a high number of expected goals against (xGA) overall, meaning they are mainly vulnerable from set pieces. CFC has 12.03 xG against from open play, whereas Liverpool has just 6.82 in the same number of games.
On the positive side, Chelsea isn’t completely helpless when it comes to set pieces. They rank second-best amongst the top six for the same metric on corners, allowing 14 shots at 0.09 xG per shot. Only Nuno Espírito Santo’s Nottingham Forest ranks higher.