Following a sobering first leg in Paris, Chelsea are on the brink of Champions League elimination. On Wednesday night, Liam Rosenior's side were smashed 5-2 by holders Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their last 16 tie at Parc des Princes. The clash was level with 15 minutes remaining, only for Vitinha's lob to fire PSG in front, before Khvicha Kvaratskhelia came off the bench to score twice.
Thus, according to Football Rankings, Chelsea now have just a 7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, having been at 53% before kick off in the French capital. The Blues did hammer les Rouge-et-Bleu 3-0 in last summer's Club World Cup Final in East Rutherford, and will require a similarly emphatic dismantling of the European Champions to remain alive in continental competition.
Given the heavy deficit, those Chelsea supporters traveling to Stamford Bridge next Tuesday should probably be encouraged by the 7% chance their side do have of progression. With that in mind, have the Blues ever overturned a three-goal first leg deficit before?
Chelsea's European ties when losing the first leg by 3+ goals
Competition | First leg score | Second leg score |
|---|---|---|
2020 Champions League round of 16 | Chelsea 0-3 Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich 4-1 Chelsea |
2026 Champions League round of 16 | PSG 5-2 Chelsea | TBC |
Amazingly, Wednesday was only the second time Chelsea have lost the first leg of a European tie by three or more goals. That second leg did not go particularly well, smashed 4-1 by Bayern Munich in Bavaria, the two fixtures taking place 165 days apart due to Covid-19.
It was also only the second time the Blues have shipped five or more goals in a Champions League fixture, the other a the second leg of a quarter-final in 2000. Back then, Gianluca Vialli's side beat Barcelona 3-1 at Stamford Bridge, before a 5-1 hammering at Camp Nou, albeit two of the goals, scored by Rivaldo and Patrick Kluivert, came during extra time in Catalonia. Looking on the flip side, les Parisiens have something of a history when it comes to collapses.
Paris Saint-Germain's European ties when winning the first leg by 3+ goals
Competition | First leg score | Second leg score |
|---|---|---|
1984 UEFA Cup first round | PSG 4-0 Heart of Midlothian | Heart of Midlothian 2-2 PSG |
1993 Cup Winners' Cup second round | PSG 4-0 Universitatea Craiova | Universitatea Craiova 0-2 PSG |
1994 Champions League qualifier | PSG 3-0 Vác FC-Samsung | Vác FC-Samsung 1-2 PSG |
1997 Cup Winners' Cup first round | Vaduz 0-4 PSG | PSG 3-0 Vaduz |
1997 Cup Winners' Cup semi-finals | PSG 3-0 Liverpool | Liverpool 2-0 PSG |
2001 Intertoto Cup second round | PSG 3-0 FC Jazz | FC Jazz 1-4 PSG |
2001 UEFA Cup second round | PSG 4-0 Rapid Wien | Rapid Wien 2-2 PSG |
2002 UEFA Cup first round | PSG 3-0 Újpest | Újpest 0-1 PSG |
2011 Europa League play-off round | Differdange 0-4 PSG | PSG 2-0 Differdange |
2014 Champions League round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen 0-4 PSG | PSG 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen |
2017 Champions League round of 16 | PSG 4-0 Barcelona | Barcelona 6-1 PSG |
2021 Champions League round of 16 | Barcelona 1-4 PSG | PSG 1-1 Barcelona |
2025 Champions League first knockout round | Brest 0-3 PSG | PSG 7-0 Brest |
2026 Champions League round of 16 | PSG 5-2 Chelsea | TBC |
This week was the 14th time in Paris Saint-Germain's wide-ranging European history that they have claimed a three goal advantage from a first leg. This includes demolishing Stade Brestois 10-0 on aggregate just over 12 months ago, en route to lifting the trophy.
In 12 of the previous 13 occasions, they have made the lead count and won the tie, with one infamous exception. This is, of course, the Remontada in 2017, when Barcelona lost 4-0 at Parc des Princes, only to pull off a remarkable 6-1 victory at Camp Nou, scoring three times after the 88th minute. Well, Chelsea will need to take inspiration from that as they target an unlikely remontada of their own. 7% chance but 100% faith required.