Champions League qualification is obviously vitally important for any top clubs, but especially Chelsea. Last week, it was announced that the Blues recorded a pre-tax loss of £355 million during the 2024/25 season, the second-highest loss of any club in European football history, behind only Barcelona in the 2020/21 season.
Thus, missing out on Champions League revenue for the third time in four seasons would cause a humungous issue. Well, they are currently forecast to do just that, following back-to-back home draws with both Leeds and Burnley, as well as Sunday's 2-1 defeat at leaders Arsenal.
Chances given to each club of finishing in the Premier League's top 5
Clubs | % chance of finishing in the top 5 |
|---|---|
Arsenal | 100% |
Manchester City | 100% |
Aston Villa | 89% |
Liverpool | 87% |
Manchester United | 83% |
Chelsea | 33% |
Brentford | 4% |
Fulham | 1% |
Note: Figures courtesy of Football Rankings & are correct at the time of publication.
First and foremost, Chelsea are fortunate that the Premier League will be awarded a bonus extra Champions League spot, given that they're given a miserly 13% chance of finishing in the top four.
In reality, fifth would be enough but, even so, the Blues' chances of achieving this are still only 33%. So why is this? Well, right now, Liam Rosenior's side are sixth, three points below Liverpool and six adrift both Aston Villa and Manchester United. Also, the World Champions' fixture list looks extremely challenging.
Chelsea's remaining Premier League fixtures
- Wednesday 4 March. Aston Villa, Villa Park. Kick off 19:30.
- Saturday 14 March. Newcastle United, Stamford Bridge. Kick off 17:30.
- Saturday 21 March. Everton, Bramley-Moore Dock. Kick off 17:30.
- 11/12 April. Manchester City, Stamford Bridge. Kick off TBC.
- 18/19 April. Manchester United, Stamford Bridge. Kick off TBC.
- 25/26 April. Brighton & Hove Albion, Falmer Stadium. Kick off TBC.
- 2/3 May. Nottingham Forest, Stamford Bridge. Kick off TBC.
- 9/10 May. Liverpool, Anfield. Kick off TBC.
- Sunday 17 May. Tottenham Hotspur, Stamford Bridge. Kick off TBC.
- Sunday 24 May. Sunderland, Stadium of Light, Kick off 16:00.
Across their remaining ten fixtures, Chelsea have to face all four of the teams directly above them. The first of these key head-to-head encounters comes at Villa Park on Wednesday night, before hosting Manchester United in mid-April and traveling to Liverpool in early-May.
The fact that they also host Manchester City is why the Blues are given such a small chance of gatecrashing the top five, but this also presents them an opportunity to make up ground and take points off the teams they are directly competing against. So, how does this difficulty compare to others?
Champions League contenders' fixture difficulty rating
Top 5 contender | Average league position of opponents |
|---|---|
Manchester United | 10 |
Aston Villa | 10.7 |
Liverpool | 9.8 |
Chelsea | 9.1 |
To support the above, based on each club's current league position, Chelsea's remaining fixtures are the toughest of the teams fighting it out for third, fourth and fifth. They are only marginally more difficult than Liverpool's, skewed by the fact that the Reds visit rock-bottom Wolves on Tuesday, but even so, most would have more faith in Arne Slot's team to get over the line.
Chelsea could of course qualify for next season's Champions League by winning this year's edition, as they did under Roberto Di Matteo in 2012. However, PSG are their last 16 opponents, with Liverpool likely awaiting in the quarter-finals, before it would be Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Real Madrid in the semis. Thus, chances are Rosenior's side are going to have to achieve this via the league, making every point count, starting with a huge clash in the Midlands this mid-week.