Chelsea now sits 5th in the table, having kept a clean sheet in the last two games and scoring more goals than any other side except Manchester City as the Premier League heads into Matchday 6.
Chelsea dispatched League Two side Barrow in midweek, winning 5-0, but now Enzo Maresca's men must turn their attention to a much more difficult opponent: Brighton. Brighton has played well under new manager Fabian Hurzeler and could do some damage to the Blues if the west London side is not alert.
This will be a great matchup for fans and neutrals alike, but here are three things you should look out for from a Chelsea perspective:
1. Defending and Shot Concession
Chelsea has not been great defensively so far, giving up too many shots and shots on target in the seven games played.
Enzo Maresca's men have conceded 34 shots and 14 shots on target in the last two games alone. This suggests that the Blues aren't doing enough to prevent the opposition from taking shots.
Robert Sanchez has been superb for Chelsea, single-handedly securing the clean sheet against Bournemouth after a penalty save. He also saved all 7 shots he faced against West Ham, although none were considered big chances.
Two clean sheets out of five games this season seems acceptable, but Chelsea ranks 7th for expected goals against (5.8), 10th for shots allowed (65), and 12th for shots on target allowed. This is notable given that the Blues have faced Manchester City, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and West Ham United. Of these teams, only Man City can be said to have a strong attack, which means Chelsea should rank higher in the aforementioned metrics.
Yes, Bournemouth ranks third in the league for shots taken, but they are 13th for goals scored, despite being 5th for shots on target. The Cherries also earned a penalty against Chelsea, which Evanilson failed to convert.
Brighton is a much better attacking side than any the Blues have faced so far, apart from Man City. In fact, Hurzeler's men rank 5th for shots, 6th for goals, and 3rd for average possession this season (62%). This means that Chelsea's defense will be tested more in this game.
2. Shot Creation
Everyone knows that Chelsea ranks second in the league for goals scored, but the attack has been lacking in some areas. Of the top six scoring teams in the league so far, the Blues have taken the fewest shots (59). The only other team close to Maresca's men in that regard is Unai Emery's Aston Villa, which has taken 62 shots and scored eight goals.
Chelsea ranks 13th in the league for shots taken and 7th for shots on target, yet has scored 11 goals from 59 shots. That is equivalent to a 19% shot conversion rate. Compared to Chelsea, the other top six scoring sides have converted at 16% (Arsenal), 16% (Aston Villa), 13% (Manchester City), 12% (Liverpool), 10% (Brighton), and 9% (Tottenham Hotspur).
At the team level, a high shot volume with a 14-15% shot conversion is much more sustainable than a relatively low shot volume with a 19% conversion rate. In fact, over the past five seasons, no team has ever converted more than 14% of its shots. Therefore, Chelsea either needs to drastically increase its shot volume per game or become the first team to convert over 16% of its shots over a league season.
Brighton's defense is also vulnerable; despite ranking 3rd for shots allowed and 2nd for shots on target allowed, the Seagulls rank 8th for expected goals against (5.9).
3. Matchup: Kaoru Mitoma vs. Malo Gusto (or whoever plays at right back)
Mitoma has been an important part of Brighton's attack, and this season, he has given many fullbacks a difficult time. Malo Gusto has returned from injury and should start against Brighton. This matchup will be key to Chelsea's ability to contain Hurzeler's men. Gusto will need to be on top of his game to avoid the Japan international getting the better of him.
Mitoma boasts an impressive 2.4 dribbles completed per game, with a 50% success rate. Gusto currently wins ground duels at a rate of 48%, the same as Mitoma. Both players will be determined to gain the upper hand.
Conclusion
Chelsea has been alright this season, but there are areas where the club should be performing much better than it has, and fans should watch out for improvements in the coming games. After escaping with a win against Bournemouth and coming up against a West Ham that had the off-the-ball structure of a League One side, Brighton would be a much better test for Maresca’s men to see where they stand.
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