Goals, penalties, and whether Cole Palmer's wand can produce magic for Chelsea again

Cole Palmer was a magician for Chelsea last season. He was so crucial that if you remove his goals and assists from the Blues, they finish as low as 16th. Palmer netted 22 times and provided 11 assists en route to the West Londoners' 6th-place finish. 33 goals plus assists were enough to rank the youngster No. 1 in that category in the Premier League last season. 

Palmer was incredible, scoring the most penalties in the league (9), creating 17 big chances (4th best), and providing the second most assists. Add these to the 22 total goals and you see how Chelsea simply couldn't do without him in the 2023/24 season. 

Chelsea escaped embarrassment last season, and that was thanks to the former Manchester City forward. With the Blues' defensive numbers under Mauricio Pochettino, an abysmal goal record would have spelled trouble for Todd Boehly's Blues. 

Under Pochettino, Chelsea averaged 1.7 league goals conceded per game, meaning that Pochettino's men had to score many goals per game to get results. For example, in the Manchester United game at Stamford Bridge, Palmer needed to score a hattrick to get the win, as the Blues had surrendered a lead to find themselves 3-2 down as of the 90th minute. 

This season so far, while it's just preseason, Chelsea has been worse defensively, currently averaging 2.4 goals allowed per game. This means Enzo Maresca's men will need saving again when the season starts, but will a wave of Palmer's magic wand work this season too?

Palmer's magic last season could be said to have come from the perfect storm. First of all, it's difficult to replicate his goal tally with his shot numbers. 

Palmer took 3.2 shots per game, with 1.4 of them being on target. This is good from a shot volume perspective, but a peek under the hood will reveal that he averaged the second-highest distance per shot (22.1 yards), behind only Caicedo's 29 yards. This is NOT good from a shot distance perspective, as it means that on average, the 22-year-old was shooting from outside the penalty area. 

It should be mentioned that Palmer was Chelsea's best shooter last season, getting the second-most shots on target despite always shooting from so far out, but the chances of scoring from that distance will always be low. 

Palmer also scored many penalties, though he won just one penalty all season. Penalties are almost exclusively a matter of random chance, though, in Chelsea's case, the team gets relatively more credit in that regard, as seven out of 12 penalties awarded were won by Blues players.

Raheem Sterling (3), Noni Madueke (2), and Mykhailo Mudryk (2) were the main penalty-kick winners for Chelsea last season. However, penalties aren't a goal source Maresca's men can rely on in the 2024/25 season, and that contributed a large number to Palmer's goal tally. 

His assists tally is very much replicable, but assists are generally very difficult to get. His 2.1 key passes per game are good enough to rank him joint 7th in the league, and considering the volume of the ball he saw every game, that is relatively low, but he is young and talented, so that number can be expected to improve. 

In terms of big chances, only Mohamed Salah, Kevin De Bruyne, Bruno Fernandes, and Heung Min Son created more than the Chelsea superstar, putting him in excellent company. 

It remains to be seen if Palmer can replicate the phenomenal form, but it would be wise to temper expectations, because many stars aligned for Palmer to have the kind of season he had last season, replicating that would be comparable to lightning striking twice in the same spot. 

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