With Gameweek 3 of the Premier League around the corner, here are my picks for the weekend
Maccabi Tel-Aviv scored in the 6th minute of added time yesterday, shocking Basel and spoiling what should have been a winning week for this column.
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World football, and the Premier League in particular, is like the wild west. In the Spanish Supercopa last week, Athletic Bilbao beat Barcelona 4-0 at home and then held them to a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou on Monday. Now there were extenuating circumstances surrounding the tie but in any case it just goes to show that any team is capable of winning on any given day…except Sunderland.
My motto is stay low and keep firing.
Sunderland v. Swansea
Here’s one of my stock market plays: keep the trend your friend. Swansea are playing well to start the season like they did last year when they won their first 3 fixtures. This seems to be a pattern with Garry Monk. Andre Ayew, Bafetimbi Gomis, Jefferson Montero and Gylfi Sigurdsson are a potent strike force and (more importantly) are in form.
Sunderland, meanwhile, are awful, and the Black Cats have shown no evidence as to why they’ll put up a fight against anyone. Much like last season, the fans have turned on them. Many left by halftime last weekend when Norwich thrashed them.
Pick: Swansea (+110)
West Brom v. Chelsea
For a team with a fair number of wingers already, is Pedro a panic buy? He is like the queen on a chess board in the sense that he is not limited to just playing in one position. He can go left, right or through the middle. That being said, Pedro is still primarily a winger and Chelsea don’t utilize their wingers down the right as a function of their attacking play. Branislav Ivanovic spends more time in that advanced position than Willian or Juan Cuadrado ever do. Personally I hope this changes and Pedro is just the man for the job.
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RANDOM FOOTY FACT The last 5 managers to defeat Mourinho all had names starting with P: Pellegrini, Pardew, Pochettino, Parkinson and Pulis
Before the season started 2 weeks ago, Chelsea were +150 to win the premier league. Today they are +350. The Blues left The Etihad bloody and bruised. Chelsea just had a whole lot of slow meaningless possession. In other words, when they had the ball nothing happened.
Gary Cahill’s nose has taken as many shots this season as Chelsea have on opposition net minders. Now they have to deal with Tony Pulis. This is not an easy proposition for Chelsea, who are not creating much as is. Don’t expect the scoreboard to light up.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-125)
Everton v. Man City
Before the season started Man City were +275 to win the league. Today they are +125. Unlike Chelsea, all of Man City’s possession is meaningful. They play fast, create scoring chances and all their attacking players get in great shooting positions. If you’re a Toffees fan, nothing should please you more than Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku getting off the mark early. In recent years Man City haven’t had the best record away at Goodison, so I’m focusing on the total. When it rains it pours and there will be plenty of goals on Merseyside.
Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (+130)
Arsenal v. Liverpool
Brendan Rodgers should be happy with their perfect record but let’s be honest, a couple of unconvincing 1-0 wins by Liverpool should not fool anyone. Having said that, this is a great spot to face the Gunners who need a big performance at home after they fell for the banana in the tailpipe v West Ham.
However, Liverpool have lost their last 3 trips to the Emirates so Arsenal get the nod here, despite Koscielny’s best efforts to make Petr Cech look like a subpar stopper.
Pick: Arsenal (-110)
La Liga Special: Malaga v. Sevilla
Spain’s domestic season kicks off this weekend. On Friday night, two-time reigning Europa League champions Sevilla visit Malaga. They may have lost two of their best players in Arturo Vidal and Carlos Bacca but Sevilla may already be in midseason form. They played Barca in a thrilling 5-4 loss in the UEFA Super Cup last Tuesday and stole the hearts of the entire viewing audience. They did the double over Malaga last season and are just great value.
Pick: Sevilla (+130)
La Liga Special: Bilbao v. Barcelona
These 2 teams are sick of one another and it showed on Monday. There were late challenges, stomps, and Gerard Pique was banned for 4 games for screaming at a linesman. As mentioned at the top, Barca lost 5-1 on aggregate over the 2 legs last Friday and this Monday. But here is the key reason for taking Barca on Sunday: while the Catalans get to exhale, rest and prepare for their season opener, poor Bilbao had to fly to Slovakia to play a Europa League match on Thursday. Sunday will be Bilbao’s 4th game in 10 days. Messi and co. will want to make this one ugly.
Pick: Barcelona -1 (-120)
Last week’s record: 2-2 (-0.7 units)
Overall: 3-6 (-4.95 units)
Who are you picking this weekend? Let us know in the comments below!
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