Another full complement of Premier League fixtures take place this weekend, with another big game for Leicester City. Can they be stopped?
Leicester City walked into the Etihad last weekend and humiliated Manchester City. How you ask?
Not to oversimplify, but they play as a cohesive unit, and all aspects of their game share a symbiotic relationship.
Man City are a group of individuals who, when they lose, lose because no-one plays for one another while they get burned by their lack of commitment.
Leicester have evolved slightly as well, and don’t concede the boat load of chances to their opponents that they did earlier in the season. Because of the speed of Jamie Vardy and the skill of Riyad Mahrez, they use a compact shape when defending to suck their opponents in, hitting them on the counter.
The Mahrez goal that made the score 2-0 is both teams in a nutshell.
All 20 outfield players were in Leicester’s half of the field. As soon as the Foxes won the ball, they released their danger man in space, and they were off to the races. Normally for a disciplined unit who play as a team you can snuff out the counter. But if you just look at all the light blue jerseys in the clip, you’ll see a bunch of guys jogging back rather than sprinting, and Nicolas Otamendi who looks like a chicken with his head cut off.
Now Manchester City, the Premier League title underdogs, and Leicester, the front runners, both have huge tests this weekend.
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Manchester City vs. Tottenham
This is a match that pits Spurs, who concede fewer goals away from home than anyone else, against a Man City team whose only chance at beating anyone is to outscore them.
Tottenham are ruthless, inventive, young and spirited. Man City, who may be without David Silva this weekend, are looking old, tired and frankly not up for the fight during their most important stretch of the season.
Tottenham may win this game, but they leave with at least a point.
Pick: Tottenham +0.5 goals (-120)
It’s also worth pointing out that City have not beaten a top 6 side all season.
Arsenal vs. Leicester
Arsenal walked into the King Power stadium in September and blew Leicester’s doors off. After the Foxes dominated the first 15 minutes and took the lead, Arsenal found their bearings and buried their chances on way to a 5-2 victory.
Leicester learned a valuable lesson that day. I think they’ll approach this game much like the City match. They’ll sit back and look to contain a Gunners side who at home this season in 12 Premier League games have only scored 16 times, hardly prolific by their standards.
My gut tells me that this game will be nip and tuck. Leicester scores 1st and then Arsenal will tie it later in the 2nd half. I envision a 1-1 draw.
Pick: Draw (+310)
Arsene may want to leave Per Mertesacker on the bench for this one.
Swansea vs. Southampton
I’m going to ride this Saints wave as far as it will take me. They haven’t allowed a goal in 4 games, and are frankly a step up above their competition at the moment. I see no reason why this is anything other than another win and clean sheet.
Pick: Southampton (+145)
Chelsea vs. Newcastle
Chelsea have drawn their last four league games at Stamford Bridge. But in watching them, it feels as if a certain hunger has returned to the players. They may be ready to explode.
Newcastle, who can put in great performance on their day, are on a 4 game losing streak away from home. Their main goal is to avoid relegation meaning that they probably have to get another 15-18 points this season. None of those will be obtained this weekend.
Chelsea will smash ’em.
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 goals (+110)
Serie A Special: Juventus vs Napoli
There is no understating this. This is the match of the year in Italy.
Quick recap for those of you who don’t follow: both teams are on fire.
Juve have won 12 games in a row in all competitions, last losing on December 8, 2015. They have kept 7 consecutive clean sheets.
Napoli are 10-1-1 in their last 12 games, and are the feel good story of the season as Serie A leaders. Gonzalo Higuain, a punching bag for Argentina and Real Madrid fans for most of his career, is arguably the in-form striker on the planet at the moment. Aside from anyone in a Barcelona jersey of course.
One hopes Napoli stays in this race all the way to the end, but facing the motivated juggernaut Juventus, in Turin, I think Juventus takes the points this weekend and goes top of the table.
Pick: Juventus (+120)
Next: Kurt Zouma’s Injury And Why Young Players Matter To Fans
Last week: 1-3 (-2.2 units)
2016 record: 3-5 (-2.2 units)