Chelsea joined 13 other Premier League clubs in voting to end the transfer window before the season begins. While it will take years to know the true effects of the move there are already several theories and possibilities as to how things will shake out.
The move has been in the works for some time, with many arguments for and against. But a majority of the Premier League clubs approved, and the window will now end before the start of the 2018/19 season.
The most obvious effect is the reason why many advocated for the change: the league will become fairer. Before, clubs played roughly three matches with the window still open. This meant some players who would later move would have already played for their soon-to-be-former club.
The most recent example is Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Chamberlain started all of Arsenal’s matches in August, including a 4-0 beat down by Liverpool. Days later, he was presented in a Liverpool kit.
The optics for this are poor. Did Chamberlain know at that point that he wanted to go to Liverpool? And if so, did he play poorer to give his new club an advantage? Did Arsene Wenger know about the potential Liverpool move? And if he did, why did he think it was a good idea to play him against Liverpool?
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Of course, none of that is known for sure and is highly speculative. But again, the optics are bad. Fans are going to draw those conclusions rightly or wrongly, and that will translate into unrest towards the player and the club. Bad media can be the end of a player or manager if the results are not there, and this is opening a route to it.
Another way the window ending early could be beneficial is that it would force the Premier League clubs to be proactive in the market. With a shorter window, the clubs will be forced to begin and end deals early. No more leaving it late as Chelsea did this season.
Notable late-summer signings at Chelsea FC
| Player | Date signed | Chelsea apps |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley Cole | 8/31/2006 | 338 |
| Michael Essien | 8/19/2005 | 256 |
| Cesar Azpilicueta | 8/24/2012 | 230 |
| Claude Makelele | 9/1/2003 | 217 |
| Willian | 8/28/2013 | 184 |
| Juan Mata | 8/24/2011 | 135 |
This could also make the Premier League clubs more aggressive with their cash, bringing in better players from around the world. This would make the entire league stronger and more competitive, and the clubs would back it by starting match-day one with the same squad they would have on Christmas.
Of course, the flip side is that it ruins the market for English clubs. Remember, this change only affects the Premier League. Premier League clubs can buy up until the beginning of the Premier League season, but international clubs will keep the August 31 / September 1 deadline day.
This could manifest itself in several ways. The first would be a further inflation of the market after an inflation-ridden 2017 transfer window. Now foreign clubs could ask for more money, like they would as transfer deadline day approached, because English clubs would have less time to find a plan B. This would also raise prices within the league itself as English clubs further increased their prices with less time to find replacements.
And with the English league capable of splashing so much cash, this could affect the entire world’s transfer market. Now clubs would be able to sell high to an English team, but would also have to buy high in order to compete. And after a summer where players casually went in excess of £80 million, the market will become insane.
This will only stop English clubs from buying. It does nothing about the international leagues having nearly three more weeks where they could buy or unsettle England-based players without the Premier League clubs being able to respond.
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Liverpool fans will understand this with the Philippe Coutinho saga. Though he did not move, it is clear all is not right with him, Liverpool, and Jurgen Klopp after Barcelona more or less publicly chased him.
La Liga’s window closed one day after the Premier League’s. On that day Liverpool and its fans worried over the fate of Coutinho. If Liverpool sold Coutinho, they would have no way to get a replacement. Though Barcelona was unable to match the asking price, it left a bitter taste in the mouths of all involved.
That was an effect of La Liga having just one day longer than the Premier League. Now imagine what that saga would have been like if Barcelona could chase Coutinho for three weeks without Liverpool being able to respond. What if that same script involved Eden Hazard and Real Madrid? Chelsea fans would be wrecks considering the club’s stance on selling players who want to leave.
But where this could potentially hurt the Premier League the most would be in the Champion’s League. The Premier League has not been a consistent major player in the late rounds of the competition since the late 2000s. Barring Chelsea pulling off the competition’s greatest miracle and some deep but unceremonious runs by Manchester City, the Premier League has been absent.
The Bundesliga and La Liga clubs have led the charge, with Juventus and Paris Saint Germain not far behind. And with the Premier League cutting their window short, it will come at the expense of their international ambitions. European clubs will have extra weeks to strengthen themselves and weaken their Premier League opposition. This will further weaken the Premier League in a competition in which it has been losing relevancy and has been desperately looking for a solution to be in the leading pack once more.
Finally, this change will have an outsized effect in the first year it occurs: the World Cup transfer window will be absolutely insane. Some of the biggest moves occur in the summer and winter windows before and the summer window during the World Cup.
The summer before the World Cup is when players move to find playing time or for fresh starts before the tournament. In the winter window before, players move searching for playing time to get into the squad. And the summer window during the tournament sees players looking for moves at what feels like the most natural reset point during their careers.
These players come in one of two flavors. The first is the player who decides to move before the World Cup even begins. This usually consists of more veteran players looking for a new challenge, using the World Cup as the end of one chapter and the beginning of another.
The second is the player who looks to move after. This one is more variable. For some, it is a desire to focus exclusively on the World Cup. Others impress or suddenly get noticed by the world and turn that into a transfer.
Regardless, the 2018 summer window will see some big moves. And with the Premier League choosing to end its window early, the window will become even crazier than it already is in England. Nothing much will change for the players leaving before the World Cup.
But the players who wait will be bombarded by Premier League clubs vying for their signature. International clubs will use this to start bidding wars. With only a few weeks between the end of the World Cup and the start of the Premier League season, things will become very hectic very fast.
In short, this move to close the window early could pay off or it could hurt deeply. Smaller clubs that do not often compete for Europe or compete with foreign clubs for signatures will enjoy the decision the most. They also would not have to worry about their star player being unsettled with games already played.
But the bigger clubs in European competition are likely to suffer from this decision. There is a real risk of inflation for the star targets of the world. And they will become disadvantaged relative to their international rivals in the transfer window and could become targets in the three week gap.
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It will take years to fully see and understand the effects ending the window will have. These possibilities could all become true or they could all be proven false fears. But it is certain that this will be a factor in some fashion from here on out.