With only 33 games remaining in the 2017/18 Premier League season, the title race is down to a two-horse show. Chelsea and the rest should step aside and allow the Manchester clubs to play a tie to determine the league champion.
Haven’t you heard? The Premier League power struggle has shifted north. The Manchester clubs are unstoppable. They are already eye-to-eye in an epic title race. On current form, the two clubs will end the season dead even with 98 points, and a +98 goal differential. If their head-to-form is matched equally well, the Premier League will decree a title game to be held at Wembley Stadium. Of course, they would have to schedule it around the two clubs’ meeting in the FA Cup final and Champions League final.
Chelsea can still qualify for next year’s Champions League. They are on track to finish the season a distant third with 76 points, securing the last automatic spot ahead of Newcastle United who will complete their phenomenal bounce-back from the Championship under Rafael Benitez.
Hopefully, at some point you realized that this was all a p— take. In fact, you probably had similar thoughts while perusing the last 24 hours of headlines.
Making dramatically conclusive statements 8% of the way through the season requires more than just a charlatan’s level of brashness and a rube’s level of credulity. You not only need to ignore every season of every sport ever, including last year’s Premier League (how did the table look on 18 September 2016? Right.). You also have to ignore the not-so-little details of the last five match-weeks.
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When Manchester United defeated Everton on Sunday, it was the first time this season they faced an opponent from last year’s top 10. Their previous opponents finished the 2016/17 campaign in 11th, 15th, 12th and 13th place. Everton finished seventh. Add those up, and the “total placing” of United’s opponents over the first five games is 58.
On the other side of TitleTown, Manchester City have faced three teams from last season’s top 10. Their other two games were against the last team to escape the drop – 17th-place Watford – and a team in the Premier League for the first time in decades, Brighton and Hove Albion. The total placing of City’s opponents – calling Brighton 22nd-place since they were second in the Championship – is 59.
Both Manchester clubs dropped points in one draw each. City drew against Everton, last year’s seventh-place team and currently in the relegation zone. United dropped points against Stoke, who were in 13th last year and are in 13th right now.
Defending champions Chelsea have also played three teams from last year’s top 10. But the “total placing” of their opponents is only 42, reflecting stiffer opposition than either Manchester club has had so far. The Blues dropped points in a loss to Burnley, and then in a draw to Arsenal.
The three points from the Burnley loss are all that separate Chelsea from the Manchester clubs. If Gary Cahill had not seen red in the first 15 minutes of the season, that game could have gone in any direction. If Cesc Fabregas had not joined Cahill in an early shower, a draw was a likely outcome as Chelsea’s comeback was on.
It takes a special kind of something to make all those declarations up top. If you’re going to make prognostications – and not mild ones, either, big ones! tremendous ones! – go all the way with it. When you proclaim that the London clubs are out of contention, back it up by laying down a punt that Newcastle will be in the Champions League, Huddersfield Town will be in the Europa League qualifiers and Everton will be relegated. Because that’s what the table says.
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Oh, and be sure to talk about how Chelsea will win the Champions League. They are currently undefeated and leading all 32 teams with a +6 goal differential.