Chelsea are odds-on favorites for a win against Aston Villa, but the margin of victory will turn on whether Tammy Abraham is in the starting XI.
Chelsea welcomes Captain, Leader, and Legend back to the Bridge when Aston Villa faces off against the Blues in a midweek Premier League clash. Frank Lampard on one side, John Terry on the other side (standing behind Dean Smith): a sight that’s surely worth the price of admission alone.
The odds are leaning heavily in favor of Chelsea, and after the pitiful display at the weekend versus West Ham, the public is expecting a big bounce back by the Blues.
Chelsea is money line favorites at -339 according to The Action Network, with Aston Villa at +965. The number for Villa is pretty big. The betting public is showing them no respect, no respect at all.
Nor should they show much. Aston Villa’s goal differential on the road is -4, scoring 11 goals in seven road matches thus far. Aston Villa has managed zero points against any team currently in the top six, and haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road yet.
Chelsea has to cover -1.75 for the spread to be a viable option to make money. In my opinion, which is the opposite of the public currently, Chelsea covers the two goals. Frank Lampard is going to have his team revved up and ready to go after the disappointing showing at the weekend.
The real question that needs answering before placing any wagers is whether Tammy Abraham is starting. The last update from Lampard was that it was a pain threshold scenario for Abraham, and he’s currently still feeling pain. I think the Blues have enough even without him to win, but I’m obviously not as confident in them to cover the two-goal spread with anyone else leading the line.
The over / under is currently at 3.25 goals and rising. The majority of money is still on the over; and by kickoff, the number will likely rise to 3.75 on The Action Network.
Tammy Abraham alone can sway some of these numbers. Chelsea is simply a more dangerous team with him leading up top.
The Blues will be looking to start fast and on the front foot, which leads me to take the over. But that expectation also tells me that, once again, the Blues will not keep a clean sheet. The over isn’t as high as it is because people expect Chelsea to cover it themselves. Both teams will be contributing, hopefully not equally.
With that said, I like a 2-1 without Tammy Abraham and a 3-1 if he starts. I really can not state it enough: Tammy Abraham makes this offense completely different.
The wingers will need to step up in his absence, because both Olivier Giroud and Michy Batshuayi haven’t once shown this season they can deliver, even with limited action.