Are the Chelsea attackers being judged too harshly as of late?

Figure 1.3: Passes per key pass

For Figure 1.3, I created a chart that shows how frequent the forwards create chances/make key passes* per 90. I name the statistic “Passes per key pass.” This chart is one of particular interest.

The chart in Figure 1.3 shows that Callum Hudson-Odoi, Romelu Lukaku and Ziyech make the fewest passes between key passes, meaning that they make passes more frequently than other forwards compared to the amount of control they have of the ball. Note that this doesn’t mean they create more chances, it just means they create chances more frequently than other forwards compared to the amount of the ball they get. The premise is that a forward who makes a lot of passes has more opportunities to make key passes and should be expected to create more.

Another noticeable thing this chart shows is that of all the forwards in question, Chelsea also carries the torch for players who make the most passes between key passes. Kai Havertz makes a key pass every 88 passes. Timo Werner is also close to that end of the chart at 56. Numbers here within the 10 to 16 range are decent intervals for key passes. The purpose of highlighting how often a player’s pass is a key pass is to predict how often players can be expected to create chances when given the ball.

It is clear now that in terms of chance creation, Chelsea’s forwards are about on par with the rest of the league, and the differences in creation numbers aren’t alarming when different. What accounts for the alarming difference in goals between these three teams then? Chemistry.

Figure 1.4: Minutes played

Liverpool and Manchester City’s forwards have much better chemistry than those of the Blues. This isn’t a myth either, as the “Minutes played” chart shows a clear story. Figure 1.4 displays that four of Chelsea’s seven forwards under scrutiny appear on the lower end of the chart, indicating that they get fewer minutes than their counterparts. In fact, the Blues only have one attacker that has played more than 1,000 Premier League minutes this season. For context, Manchester City has four and Liverpool has three.

Chelsea also has four players that have played less than 800 minutes this season of a possible 1,900+ minutes available. The actual problem with Chelsea’s attack begins to show. Front lines need synergy as much as defenses do, probably more so. When the forwards don’t play together enough times, it takes from the attack because passes are slower, decisions aren’t made in time and valuable moments that could have caught the opponent out will inevitably be lost.

*-Key passes are also chances created. A key pass is a chance created.