Chelsea at Luton Town: FA Cup fifth round gambling guide

Perseverance is the word of the week at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea has been making headlines over the past few days for multiple reasons, none of which have been very positive. The report that Roman Abramovich is looking to sell the club amid financial sanctions due to his relationship with Russia is obviously an unwanted distraction, as made clear by Thomas Tuchel during his animated press conference on Tuesday, which has taken its toll on the team. Now, with all of this swirling in the background, the Blues will travel to Kenilworth Road to take on Luton Town in the fifth round of the FA Cup.

We’ll stay away from the complicated stuff in this article and instead think about how to make some money. As we know by now, domestic cup matches don’t provide a lot of value for moneyline bets, so focusing on the props will likely be more lucrative. Additionally, neither of these sides has been in particularly strong form in recent weeks, so betting on the final result is a risky proposition anyway, in my opinion.

Here is your gambling guide to Chelsea at Luton Town in the FA Cup fifth round

I feel like I’ve been writing this a lot in the last few gambling guides, but I hate to be the guy who roots for boring football. That being said, I’m going to do it again here. The under has been incredibly hot recently, hitting in the last three matches involving the European Champions and I think it will do so against the Hatters, as well. Both of these back lines kept a clean sheet in their previous games, with Chelsea stifling Liverpool’s potent attack and Luton completely blanking Derby County, so I’ll ride the defensive trend. Under 2.5 total goals at +105 odds is definitely a bet to keep an eye on.

While I think the Blues will ultimately be victorious, I wouldn’t predict a completely one-sided affair. The scorelines from Chelsea’s runs in the domestic cups haven’t been as egregious as they were in previous years, best exemplified by the fourth round tie against Plymouth Argyle requiring extra time to be resolved. The Blues’ incompetence in front of goal is to blame for some of these close calls and the forwards’ finishing in the Carabao Cup final on Sunday certainly didn’t give me much hope for a rapid improvement. Until one of the attackers can consistently find the back of the net, I would keep my bets on the moneyline. Chelsea -1.5 with the Asian Handicap is tempting at +120 odds, but I’m expecting another close contest.

The World Champions’ success has come largely because of Tuchel’s defensive organization and the individual performances of specific players, namely Antonio Rudiger, Thiago Silva and Edouard Mendy. The two central defenders have proven more than capable of leading a solid back line that doesn’t concede many chances and, with the world’s best goalkeeper between the sticks, there are few quality opportunities for opposing offenses. The Blues aren’t keeping as many clean sheets as they did in the previous campaign, but I think the Hatters could be shut out on Wednesday evening.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of March 2)

Chelsea ML: -275
Luton Town ML: +700
Draw: +370
Over/Under: 2.5 (-135/+105)

My picks

I admitted earlier that I’m wary of an upset in this match, but I’ll still ride Chelsea on the moneyline (-275). I really don’t like the value on this bet, though, so I would recommend parlaying it with another bet that has a decent chance of hitting to try for the plus juice. Two solid options, which are my other two picks for the match, are under 2.5 total goals (+105) and the Chelsea clean sheet prop (-105).

What are some of the interesting odds you’ll be taking in this contest? Let us know your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter!