Cole Palmer is about to play the single most important game of his Premier League career—and Chelsea's future depends entirely on his ability to find the back of the net. A year ago, that would've been a safe bet, as Palmer set English football ablaze with 22 goals in 33 appearances.
Unfortunately, in the midst of a stretch during which he's scored just one goal since Jan. 14, Chelsea will need Palmer to dig deep and prove that he can break the trend in his final stand.
Roll back the calendar to Jan. 14 and Palmer was well on his way to yet another unforgettable season. He'd tallied 14 goals and seven assists in 21 matches in the Premier League, including a four-goal performance against a surging Brighton side, and seven in his previous nine appearances.
Since Jan. 14, however, Palmer has scored just one goal—not just in the Premier League, but across Conference League and FA Cup competitions, as well.
If that sounds like an shockingly sustained silent string of showings, know that you're correct. Palmer has one goal scored in his past 21 matches played, mustering three assists during that time as his trouble with creating offensive production has painfully persisted.
Palmer's impact admittedly can't be simplified to what shows up on the stat sheet, but if he hopes to save Chelsea from disaster, he'll need to take over against Nottingham Forest.
Chelsea wins and they're in, lose and disaster may strike
If Chelsea manages to defeat Nottingham Forest during their final match of the 2024-25 Premier League season, they'll be headed to the Champions League in 2025-26. That's a remarkably exciting possibility for a club that finished sixth in the table in 2023-24.
Unfortunately, if Chelsea loses to Nottingham Forest, then there's a realistic possibility that they could miss out on both Champions League and Europa League qualification.
Liverpool and Arsenal are locked in as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the Premier League table at 83 and 71 points respectively. Manchester City holds a commanding two-point lead over the rest of the field with 68 points entering Matchweek 38.
Newcastle United then checks at No. 4 with 66 points, matching Chelsea's point total, but leading them in goal differential with a slim advantage of 22 to 20.
As such, if Chelsea loses to Nottingham Forest, and Newcastle maintains an edge in goal differential, then the Blues would finish no higher than fifth in the table. If those exact results play out, but Aston Villa defeats Manchester United, then Chelsea would be bumped down to No. 6—and miss the Champions League cut altogether.
If Nottingham Forest defeats Chelsea outright, Newcastle holds on to its goal differential advantage, and Villa saves even a single point, then Chelsea would fall to No. 7. To make matters more complicated: Crystal Palace has already earned a Europa League berth by winning the FA Cup.
At that rate, Chelsea's only remaining path to European qualification would be to win the Conference League final.
Cole Palmer can prevent disaster from striking
Thankfully for Chelsea, they have a budding superstar who was built for moments like this. Not only is Palmer one of the most exceptionally talented players in the world, but he's already proven to have the capacity for greatness under pressure.
Look no further than 2023-24, when Chelsea was in a position of desperation near the end of the season and Palmer put the team on his back.
Chelsea exited Matchweek 26 in 2023-24 at 11th in the table, sitting nine points shy of European qualification. Palmer would immediately begin to right the ship, assisting an Axel Disasi goal in a 2-2 draw with Brentford that began the accumulation of momentum.
Palmer would go on to record 12 goals and four assists in Chelsea's final 11 Premier League matches, leading the team to a massive rise up the table and earning Conference League qualification.
Palmer also assisted a 90th-minute winner in the semifinal at the Euros for England, and scored a 73rd-minute game-tying goal in the final. The pressure on him in Matchweek 38 of the 2024-25 season, however, may be the heaviest he's ever been tasked with carrying.
If Palmer delivers, Champions League football should be in his future. If he comes up short, then there's a real chance that Chelsea will be on the outside looking in during the 2025-26 campaign.