Chelsea fans should watch the first 15 minutes vs Manchester City from behind the sofa

Of course, anything can happen in a one-off match, but fair to say Chelsea come into Saturday's FA Cup final as massive underdogs. The Blues are without a win in 13 meetings with Manchester City and had lost six successive Premier League fixtures, prior to last weekend's 1-1 draw with Liverpool that lacked quality throughout on both sides. Nevertheless, that match on Merseyside continued something of a theme for Chelsea this season and that is conceding early goals.

PLclubs: Most goals conceded in the first 15 minutes of matches 25/26

Note: Statistics courtesy of Transfermarkt.

In the Premier League this season, only Burnley, a side who were relegated long ago, have conceded more goals than Chelsea in the first 15 minutes of matches. The Blues' tally of 11 means they have done so in almost one in every three fixtures.

At the other end of the scale, Manchester City have scored nine goals during the opening quarter of an hour and conceded zero. Pep Guardiola's team have gone 42 league games without their opponents scoring in the first 15 minutes, dating back to 12 April last year against Crystal Palace.

Chelsea's goals conceded in first 15 minutes of matches 25/26

• 9 May: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea - Ryan Gravenberch 6'.

• 4 May: Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham Forst - Taiwo Awoniyi 2' & Igor Jesus 15' (P).

• 21 April: Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 Chelsea - Ferdi Kadıoğlu 3'.

• 17 March: Chelsea 0-3 Paris SG (UCL) - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 6' & Bradley Barcola 15'.

• 11 March: Paris Saint-Germain 5-2 Chelsea (UCL) - Bradley Barcola 10'.

• 4 March: Aston Villa 1-4 Chelsea - Douglas Luiz 2'.

• 31 January: Chelsea 3-2 West Ham United - Jarrod Bowen 7'.

• 14 January: Chelsea 2-3 Arsenal (EFL Cup) - Ben White 7'.

• 30 December: Chelsea 2-2 Bournemouth - David Brooks 6'.

• 20 December: Newcastle United 2-2 Chelsea - Nick Woltemade 4'.

• 3 December: Leeds United 3-1 Chelsea - Jaka Bijol 6'.

• 20 September: Manchester United 2-1 Chelsea - Bruno Fernandes - 14'.

• 22 August: West Ham United 1-5 Chelsea - Lucas Paquetá 6'.

Across all competitions, Chelsea have conceded 15 times in the opening quarter of an hour of matches, which represents 19% of all goals they've shipped. This trend has certainly accelerated during the second half of the campaign, only doing so three times before Christmas, but on eight occasions since the start of March.

The Blues have recovered to beat West Ham twice and Aston Villa, but surely would not be able to recover from a nightmare start against Manchester City. In each of their last three Premier League games, Chelsea have gone 1-0 down in the first six minutes and can ill-afford a repeat at Wembley. So, how does their tally of 11 early goals conceded compare to previous campaigns?

Chelsea PL goals conceded in the first 15 minutes by season

Note: Statistics courtesy of Transfermarkt.

This total of early goals conceded represents an exponential increase compared to any previous Chelsea season. In fact, even during BlueCo's first campaign 2022/23, when the club finished 12th, they only let in seven. Thus, their tally of 11 is the most in any Chelsea Premier League season ever, shattering the previous record of nine set in 1994/95, when they finished 11th under Glenn Hoddle.

Thus, given all of this, Chelsea fans may want to watch the beginning of Saturday's FA Cup final from behind the sofa. Calum McFarlane's team primary job is to make sure the cup final isn't all over by quarter past three.

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