Even after only playing one of their three World Cup group games, it appears highly-likely that England will finish first in Group L. Thomas Tuchel's team beat Croatia 4-2 in Texas last Wednesday, thanks to Harry Kane's first half brace, with Jude Bellingham and then Marcus Rashford on target after the interval.
The Three Lions will now take on Ghana at Gillette Stadium on Tuesday night, before concluding the group phase on Saturday in New Jersey against Panama. If England are victorious in Massachusetts, and Panama fail to beat Croatia in Toronto later on, Tuchel's team will have rubber stamped first place with a game to spare, allowing him to rest and rotate for the final group game next weekend.
So, as winners of Group L, who would England face, and when? Well, their round of 32 match would take place on Wednesday 1 July at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with a midday kick off local time, which is 5pm in the UK.
Meantime, their opponents will be a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K. There are 495 potential permutations, I know what you're thinking, is that all?! So, let's try and figure out who England's opponents are most-likely to be.
England's possible round of 32 opponents
Group | % chance of facing England |
|---|---|
E | 5.86% |
H | 0.61% |
I | 22.83% |
J | 4.04% |
K | 66.67% |
Setting the above data aside for one moment, who would be England's easiest or indeed toughest possible last 32 opponents.
Ranking England's possible last 32 opponents from worst to best
Group | Potential 3rd teams | Most-likely 3rd | Difficulty rating |
|---|---|---|---|
E | Côte d'Ivoire, Curaçao & Ecuador | Ecuador | 5/10 |
H | Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde & Saudi Arabia | Uruguay | 5/10 |
I | Senegal & Iraq | Senegal | 7/10 |
J | Austria & Algeria | Algeria | 3/10 |
K | Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo & Uzebkistan | DR Congo | 4/10 |
In 330 of the 495 scenarios, around two-thirds, England end up facing the third-place finisher from Group K. This is likely to be DR Congo, after the Leopards held Portugal to a 1-1 draw in their opener. Sébastien Desabre's side take on Colombia on Tuesday night but, even if they are beaten in Guadalajara, DR Congo will reach the knockout stages at their first World Cup since '74 with victory over Uzbekistan in Atlanta on Saturday. They are surely favourites to win that one.
England have never previously met DR Congo, albeit they did lose against African opposition for the very first time 12 months ago, beaten 3-1 by Senegal in a friendly in Nottingham. Of course, it is still possible that Portugal or Colombia end up third in this group, albeit this does seem unlikely.
If Group K does not provide a third-place finisher to the knockouts, England fans would likely to turn their attention to Group I. In that section, Senegal and Iraq are both pointless, but will go head-to-head in Toronto on Friday, with the winners taking third place. Thus, the Three Lions could be reunited with the Lions of Téranga. They did swat the African champions aside 3-0 in the round of 16 in Qatar four years ago but, as mentioned, Pape Thiaw's were 3-1 victors at the City Ground last June.
With DR Congo and Senegal currently their most-likely opponents, neither will be straight-forward, but England will be favourites to prevail, hoping this would be just the first of five knockout stage victories in little over a fortnight they'll need to win the World Cup.
England's potential World Cup knockout stage schedule.
- Round of 32: Wednesday 1 July. Kick off 12 (local) & 5 (BST). Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
- Round of 16: Sunday 5 July. Kick off 6 (local) & 1am (BST). Estadio Azteca, Mexico City.
- Quarter-final: Saturday 11 July. Kick off 5 (local) & 10 (BST). Hard Rock Stadium, Miami.
- Semi-final: Wednesday 15 July. Kick off 3 (local) & 8 (BST). Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
- Final: Sunday 19 July. Kick off 3 (local) & 8 (BST). MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
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