Examining Nicolas Jackson's debut Chelsea season: Trials, triumphs, and potential

Chelsea supporters were unsure last summer whether the arrival of Nicolas Jackson from Villarreal would solve the striker issues that have plagued the club since the departure of Diego Costa. A year later, fans are divided on the same topic, as the Senegalese forward season yielded mixed reactions. Despite recording double digits in goals, a feat very few Chelsea players have achieved over the past five years, skeptics are still raising concerns regarding Jackson's capacity to lead Enzo Maresca's frontline.

As Chelsea fans know, there is much more to Jackson's game that deserves credit but is under-discussed in the general discourse. In this article, The Pride of London will analyze the striker's attributes to identify strengths, drawbacks, and potential to improve.

Let's dive in.

Precision in Front of Goal

Although Jackson's final output in front of goal is satisfactory, the standout talking point about his 2023/24 season was the substandard finishing proficiency, underlined by the 'goals -expected goals (xG)' metric, which quantifies over or underachievement. In this parameter, Jackson's -4.6 goals underperformance was the fourth lowest in the Premier League - a matter of unease for the club.

Digging further into the numbers, we gain more understanding of Jackson's performance, specifically regarding the ability to get into goalscoring positions and hesitancy to shoot. We will break it down one point at a time.

Many have been quick to point out, like we did, about the variance between goals and xG. However, a point that they seldom touch upon is his raw xG figure (18.2). To accumulate the fifth-highest xG in the Premier League - only behind Erling Haaland (29.2), Mohamed Salah (21.2), Alexander Isak (20.3), and Dominic Solanke (19.6) - a player must demonstrate the aptitude to get into goalscoring positions, which Jackson showcased last season. It is an area of encouragement for Maresca, as he relies on the Chelsea No. 15 in the upcoming campaign.

Furthermore, Jackson can boost his goal production by improving his decision-making. Numerous times last season, the Senegalese forward would reach advantageous positions in the opposition's penalty box but would hesitate to pull the trigger due to indecision and a lack of confidence - a trait that Maresca will aim to coach out of the 23-year-old.

This is aptly reflected in Jackson's data, with his average ranking in the volume of shots attempted but contrasting performance in shot quality compared to forwards in the Big Five leagues as per FBref. Although the latter is encouraging, Jackson needs to focus more on taking additional shots on goal rather than always waiting for the perfect moment.

Still, at a relatively young age, Jackson has plenty of room to grow. Hence, the deficiencies outlined above can be ironed out over time, and when that happens, the Chelsea striker could develop into one of the best goal-scorers in the Premier League.

Connecting the Dots

The capacity of a striker to drop from the frontline to link play and cause central overloads is profitable for a possession-dominant side. It can stir confusion in the opposition's defensive unit as they contemplate between stepping up to mark the striker or leaving them free. The former will limit the on-ball threat of the striker but encourages runners from deep to exploit the gap opened. However, the latter could prove detrimental if the striker is a proficient passer or ball carrier.

Jackson's technical expertise allows Maresca to utilize him as a striker who performs those actions - providing the Italian manager with tactical options. Furthermore, his pace and ball-carrying dexterity also allow rotations with the striker and another member of the forward line. Adding a versatile forward like Christopher Nkunku to the starting eleven would suit this tactic, as he can play multiple positions, including striker and left winger.

Hence, Jackson is one of Chelsea's primary outlets for ball progression through the defensive and middle third. His technical quality permits him to receive passes, hold up play, and then turn to carry the ball or pass it to another teammate. Jackson's ball progression statistics validate his significance to the team.

In the final third, Jackson is a goal threat as a finisher and a supplier - represented by his passing numbers in the final third. The Chelsea No.15 is also an underappreciated dribbler - creating 18 shot-creating actions (SCA) through take-ons in the Premier League - the second highest, only behind Mohammed Kudus.

Therefore, Jackson's well-polished on-ball ability makes him a useful resource for Maresca, who will appreciate the tactical flexibility and ball progression merits he provides.

Learning Curve

At 23 years old, with only more than 5000 minutes of senior club football experience, Jackson still has much more to learn. Apart from improving his sharpness in front of goal, the Chelsea striker has other areas of development. Namely, timing runs, discipline, and aerial presence.

Jackson has displayed his adeptness to perform clever runs through channels under Mauricio Pochettino. However, his aptness to stay onside consistently has remained a point of frustration among Chelsea supporters. In Maresca's system where the team will command possession, timing runs will be of all the more importance against deep defensive lines where there is little space to maneuver. With more coaching and in-game experience, this will likely improve.

The same can be said for his discipline on the field. Accumulating yellow cards for 'tactical fouls', as we like to call them, is understandable. However, the disappointment comes in the needless cards he receives for a lack of composure and calmness. But again, this will improve with more experience.

Lastly, a frailty in Jackson's game is his lack of aerial presence. Despite standing tall at 6'1, the Senegal international consistently fails to utilize his frame and structure to tower over defenders. Hence, limiting Chelsea's aerial threat in the penalty box.

The Come Up

Jackson has endured a fair share of criticism and disapproval from the Premier League public. In a highly watched competition, that is expected. However, not all players can cope while keeping their heads down and working hard behind the scenes. The ones who successfully make it to the other side unscathed and raise the level of their game earn the owed credit in due course.

Jackson is the type of player who wears his heart on his sleeves and has kept his on-field emotions real from the jump. The crowd witnesses all the moods, from frustrations when he misses golden opportunities to his Ronaldo celebration after completing a hattrick against fellow rivals Tottenham Hotspur. Throughout the season, from the first to the last kick of the ball in Chelsea blue, you could see the determination in his eyes to stay on course and keep driving on the road of improvement to get to the top on his own.

"I remember the Champions League final in 2012 and especially when Drogba scored that header right at the end. I watched those players for Chelsea when I was growing up so I decided to follow in their footsteps. Hopefully, that’s what continues to happen now I’m here."

- Nicolas Jackson

No matter the stories the critics write about doubting his talents, no one questions his hunger through the struggle. With a new manager in Maresca at the helm, the Chelsea hierarchy is hoping to have found the keys to unlock Jackson's and the whole Chelsea team's potential to bring them to the Premier League zenith.