Chelsea find themselves in a very similar position to last season, except this time the road ahead looks even tougher. The Blues are in real danger of missing out on Champions League qualification, with a brutal run of fixtures from March to the end of the campaign.
At the same stage last year, after Matchweek 29, Chelsea were on 49 points. This season, they head into Matchweek 28 with 45 points. The gap does not look big on paper, but the upcoming challenge is what makes it concerning.
Chelsea have already dropped 17 points at home, the most in the league, and still have major tests at Stamford Bridge against Manchester United, Manchester City, and Newcastle. Based on recent form, it is difficult to see them go through those fixtures without dropping more points.
The worst is yet to come for Chelsea
The upcoming schedule offers little relief. Trips to the Emirates and Villa Park are followed by Newcastle at home, Everton away, and Manchester City at Stamford Bridge. Opta ranks this as the toughest five-game stretch in the league, and the challenge is only heightened by multiple competitions.
An FA Cup tie with Wrexham and a Champions League Round of 16 clash with Paris Saint-Germain mean rotation will be limited and the physical tests tougher.
Last season, Chelsea could rely on the Conference League to rest key players while keeping Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernández, Moisés Caicedo and Reece James fresh for domestic games. That luxury does not exist this year. Champions League fixtures demand full strength lineups and consistency across competitions.
The run-in remains equally demanding. A deep European run would make managing fitness and form even more difficult. With Palmer not quite at his usual level, more responsibility could fall on Joao Pedro and Estevao Willian to provide decisive moments.
Chelsea’s rivals appear to have a smoother path. Manchester United have just the Premier League to focus on and look more settled, while Liverpool, level on points with Chelsea, also have a kinder fixture list. The race could ultimately come down to the meeting at Anfield in Matchweek 36, though Chelsea have not won there since March 2021.
Considering all factors, missing out on Champions League qualification feels like a real possibility. The consequences would be significant. Chelsea remain without a front of shirt sponsor, and securing a major commercial deal is closely tied to Champions League football.
Under Roman Abramovich, Chelsea missed the Champions League only three times in twenty years. If they fall short again this season, Clearlake Capital and Co. will match that number in just four years, a clear sign of how quickly standards have shifted.