Chelsea could see out 2017 without playing a top-half opponent. Will Antonio Conte continue rotating his squad, or will he return to a best XI to ensure all the points from the month and have that side sharp for the second half of the season?
Antonio Conte took advantage of a weak Swansea City and a low-stakes Champions League tie against Atletico Madrid to rest some of his most reliable starters. The squad rotation in those games combined with Chelsea’s performances against Newcastle and West Bromwich Albion strongly point to the Blues’ best XI’s in the 3-5-2 and 3-4-3.
However, Conte may continue to rotate 1-2 players each match through the congested holiday span. Chelsea will average one game every three days, but they may not face any top-half opposition until January 4, in the London derby at Arsenal.
As the table stands now, 10th-place Everton are the highest-placed team Chelsea will play in December. Despite being at the midpoint of the table, Everton are only two consecutive wins out from a relegation scrap. Six of Chelsea’s upcoming opponents have between 15-18 points, with Everton topping that range. Chelsea’s immediate opponent, though, is West Ham United, sitting on 10 points as the David Moyes era struggles to attain lift-off.
With this schedule, and with one of those seven matches being a Carabao Cup game against Bournemouth, Antonio Conte could give every player at least one game off without risking points.
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The last few matches firmed up Chelsea’s best XI. Gary Cahill, Andreas Christensen and Cesar Azpilicueta comprise the best defensive line. Antonio Rudiger can fill in on either side, though, with the others shuffling to cover a day off for one of the trio.
Davide Zappacosta and Victor Moses are now in a battle for the right wing-back slot, the perfect situation for squad rotation. Zappacosta can cover Marcos Alonso if necessary on the left, but he is by no means a preferred option. However, Kenedy played 90 minutes as left wing-back for the U23’s in the Checkatrade Trophy on Wednesday. Given everything around him this season, that could equally be a sign of Conte wanting him sharp and match ready or showing him what will comprise the short remainder of his time at Chelsea.
Among the midfielders, Tiemoue Bakayoko is the weak link in the 3-5-2 now that Danny Drinkwater is on his game. However, Bakayoko could still be a partner to N’Golo Kante in the 3-4-3, a set-up that allows for one striker and one midfielder to rest. Kante, Drinkwater and Cesc Fabregas are the best midfield for the 3-5-2, and can cover rotation up front or on the flank.
And on the front line, either Pedro or Willian (but never both, it seems) is in top form at any given moment. They can support a 3-4-3, or a partial-game replacement at wing-back. In the centre, the 3-4-3 allows Alvaro Morata or Eden Hazard to rest. Michy Batshuayi’s return (he, too, played 90 minutes with the U23’s) creates one more option, particularly for the Carabao Cup.
Antonio Conte does not need his best XI to advance to the next round in the Carabao Cup and enter 2018 18 points richer. More importantly, he has a variety of XI’s that are barely weaker than his best XI. Better yet, some of these variations could offer tactical advantages against opponents liable to sit back and make Chelsea chip through a dense block behind the ball.
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Conte will have plenty of opportunities to play his best XI, which he should still do to keep them sharp and in sync as a unit before facing Arsenal on January 4. As long as Chelsea’s success in rotation does not create a false sense of security in the January transfer window, anything to blunt the fatigue and injury risk of the holiday period will only help the Blues in the critical months ahead.