Fair to say, this season has not gone to plan for Chelsea. Enzo Maresca was sacked on New Year's Day and Liam Rosenior lasted only 107 days in the job, before the Blues suffered six straight Premier League defeats, hence why they are languishing down in eighth place. Fans did get their most enjoyable night of the season on Tuesday, beating Tottenham 2-1 at Stamford Bridge, plunging Spurs into further relegation trouble, thanks to goals from Enzo Fernández and Andrey Santos the scorers.
So, ahead of Sunday's trip to the Stadium of Light to face Sunderland, the Blues could still get into European competition, but is that really what they want? Right now, they could finish as high as seventh but as low as eleventh, so what would this mean?
Premier League's European qualification spot:
- 7th: Qualification for the UEFA Europa League league phae.
- 8th: Qualification for the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
- 9th (or below): No European qualification.
As things stand, Chelsea would be back in the Conference League, the competition they won just last season. To do so, they had to overcome such illustrious European names as Noah, Astana, Shamrock Rovers, Legia Warszawa and Djurgården, so would probably rather not return to UEFA's third-tier competition. Ahead of the final day, what do the statisticians believe to be the most-likely outcome?
Chances of Chelsea finishing in league positions ahead of the final day
League position | European qualification | % chance |
|---|---|---|
7th | Europa League spot | 31.8% |
8th | Conference League spot | 33.5% |
9th | No European qualification | 19.9% |
10th | No European qualification | 14.8% |
11th | No European qualification | 0.1% |
Note: Percentages courtesy of Football Meets Data.
The stats suggest that Chelsea have a 65% chance of being in Europe next season, with the Conference League marginally their most-likely destination. The snatch seventh, Calum McFarlane's side must beat Sunderland on Wearside and hope Brighton do not win against Manchester United in Sussex simultaneously. Who knows what sort of team Michael Carrick will put out there.
If the Seagulls are victorious, eighth is Chelsea's celling, needing to match Brentford's result which, given that the Bees travel to Anfield, you would expect them to do. Of course, Sunday's hosts Sunderland would leapfrog the Blues with a victory meaning that, were Chelsea to suffer defeat in the North East, they would be guaranteed to miss out on a European spot.
Perhaps, with Xabi Alonso coming in, one could certainly make an argument that having fewer games would actually be a benefit for new manager, allowing him to have free weeks on the training ground. Ideally, the Blues would get into the Europa League, but Brighton may win their game, eliminating that as a possibility. Were it to be the case that the Conference League is the best they can achieve, there is more than a case to be made that they should lose at the weekend, allowing Sunderland to enjoy only a second-ever European tour, after featuring in the Cup Winners' Cup in 1973/74.
Add us as a preferred source on Google