Should Maresca drop Jackson for Nkunku? The stats say yes

Chelsea’s recent clash against AFC Bournemouth was a classic smash-and-grab. The Blues were fortunate to secure all three points at the Vitality Stadium as the Cherries provided a stern test during the away fixture. In a game where clear-cut chances were few and far between, it ultimately came down to who could make the most of the opportunities presented. Step forward Christopher Nkunku—he played just 11 minutes and scored the decisive goal.

Nkunku’s impact has been undeniable, whether he starts or comes off the bench. His ability to influence games raises a pertinent question: should Enzo Maresca consider dropping Nicolas Jackson and start Nkunku instead? The stats and eye test seem to point in that direction.

To make a balanced comparison, we can look at their performances on a per-90-minute basis. While Jackson has clocked 303 minutes of Premier League football this season, Nkunku has played only 81 minutes over four matches. However, when adjusting for playing time, Nkunku outperforms his teammate in several key areas.

For instance, Nkunku averages 3.4 chances created per 90 minutes, far exceeding Jackson's 1.2. He also has a better goals-per-90 ratio, netting 1.2 goals compared to Jackson’s 0.6. Nkunku’s superiority is further demonstrated by his exceptional passing accuracy (97.6%), well above Jackson's 76.79%. Moreover, Nkunku completes 50% of his take-ons, whereas Jackson manages only 33.33%. Finally, Nkunku registers 8.9 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes, compared to Jackson’s 5.1.

Jackson’s supporters might argue that the Senegalese striker contributes to playmaking and link-up play, but Nkunku has shown he can do that just as well, if not better. The former RB Leipzig star boasts excellent ball control, dribbling through tight spaces and maintaining fluidity in the attack. His ability to drop deeper in the middle could even facilitate Joao Felix moving into a central striker role, providing Maresca with a more versatile attacking dynamic. Nkunku’s silky touches and bursts of pace further highlight his value in Chelsea’s offensive buildup.

Another area where Nkunku shines is physicality—a trait Jackson has struggled with this season. The Senegal international often loses out in physical battles, unable to hold off defenders effectively. In contrast, Nkunku's strength allows him to shrug off challenges and continue threatening opposition defenses. The Frenchman wins an impressive 7.8 duels per 90 minutes, while Jackson wins only 1.8. This physical advantage was evident against Bournemouth, where Nkunku muscled past defenders to score, while Jackson was often outmuscled in key moments.

Nkunku also brings a sharper instinct and clinical edge in front of goal. Jackson has missed several big chances this season, an issue Chelsea can ill afford. In contrast, Nkunku needed just one opportunity to make a difference against Bournemouth, finishing with a toe-poke—not the cleanest, but certainly effective.

Nkunku’s preseason performances and contributions in the UEFA Conference League only add weight to his case for a starting role. Given the evidence, Maresca should consider starting Nkunku over Jackson in the next three Premier League games leading up to the October international break. Jackson could still feature in the EFL Cup and UEFA Conference League matches, allowing him to continue developing without the pressure of being the primary striker in league fixtures.

This isn't to suggest that Jackson lacks potential. But with Nkunku’s consistent impact and superior statistical performance, he has earned the right to be a regular starter. After all, 81 minutes of Premier League football over four games simply doesn’t do justice to his immense talent and performances.